|
Pages: [1] |  |
|
|
Author
|
Topic: Weekly Softs Reviews (Read 645 times)
|
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 57
 
  Viet Nam
|
 Oct 19, 2010, 12:45:24 AM | #1 |
For the new trading week, PitGuru Jurgens H. Bauer's talk or analysis on the soft market will take your time today. But, this time means money. Spend some minutes noting down the important information on soft reviews and other futures market reviews for you whole successful trading week! Keep up with the news and decide your trading on-time!
The Softs Pit Review
For the week of October 18th, 2010
T'was a wild and woolly week in the Softs! Cotton established new all time record high, moving double limit up on Thursday. Then in a key reversal on Friday cotton dropped 10 cents from that new high! Sugar rallied, also registering a new high, then it too dropped. Coffee had an early week low of 176.35 and a high three days later of 190.45. Even OJ prices made surprising moves. So the markets are indeed wild and moving around big. Such price action may be signaling a top, but at the very least shows there will be two sided price action. The highs ought to be difficult areas of resistance.
What to look for? In coffee, KCZ looks to be building an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that if completed, requiring some sideways to lower work price wise, could portend prices up to my long term objective of $2.08. However, a serious break below 178 could also could threaten 170 and look poor. As much as Cotton's price action on Friday suggests a key reversal top, that market has been building for a sizable correction. The key there is whether long speculators and funds agree and we start to see follow through. Certainly prices have risen far too much far too fast, so a top isn't totally unexpected. The bigger question, is it the end of the move? Stay tuned, stranger things have happened. I can say the strain on traders is obvious and volatility doesn't show the wide spreads between bids and offers that have become common place these days.
In sum, look for defensive action and consider flattening out any existing long positions. Looks like my long cocoa call position is a loser.
I will end my comments here as my daughter-in-law is in labor with my first grandchild, a girl, named Elsie Jane Bauer.
**Chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. |
|
| | « Last Edit: Dec 20, 2010, 11:19:58 PM By: flotradz06 » | |
|
|
| |
|
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 57
Viet Nam
|
|
Dec 20, 2010, 11:28:03 PM | #2 |
Be back with the Soft market in the new week : the week of December 20th, 2010, just check out to see if there is anything new in Coffee, Cotton, Sugar and other soft markets during this special week!
The Softs Review
For the week of December 20th, 2010
By Pitguru Jurgens H. Bauer
As the year of 2010 comes to an end I am of the opinion that we haven't seen anything yet. Sure Cotton, Sugar and Coffee have had huge moves up this year, but I expect even more fireworks in 2011. Coffee broke into new high ground on Friday, and Sugar took off with another big gain, Cotton (at least the March contract) moved limit, and all look prepared for another boost upward. Coffee could pop to $2.50-$3.00, even though my objective of $2.30 is now within easy reach, I think it entirely possible we could see $2.50 soon, maybe even this week. In Cotton, the March/May spread suggests that demand is still great right now. Physical cotton is needed and needed sooner than later. So too sugar, whose weekly chart has me thinking that a much bigger move remains in the cards. And Cocoa, which I perceive as being undervalued in the complex, may be providing a superior buying opportunity with its recent pullback as reaction to Ivory Coast tensions are predicted to behave.
The downside will come (and I believe it will be vicious when it does), but that time is not now. Now looks to me like a time for bull markets. All in all it has been a big year of gains with several records established in 2010.Yet, I am willing to bet we haven't seen the end of higher prices among the soft complex and feel 2011 may be another big plus year.
For this holiday shortened week, covered calls may be a worthwhile strategy. Certainly outright Call Option may appeal for the limited risk factor, but premiums are expensive and costly for a reason. Volatility is a measure of the market's predictability and while I may predict higher prices on the horizon, attracting a willing seller comes at a larger price. Call spreads may be another choice, but with volatility so high and semi-vacation time with the holidays over the next couple of weeks, selling covered calls is my preference. Since selling covered calls is akin to selling synthetic puts, those with lower risk tolerance levels ought to consider buying downside puts as coverage. Just remember, they aren't cheap and tend to get hurt by decreasing volatility should prices move down.
One more time, I would like to take this chance to wish you guys a Merry Xmas and Happy New Year!!! |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Pages: [1]
|
|
|
 |
