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Topic: Review Of Strategic Tips on Forex Signals In Forex Forum (Read 7058 times)
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
  Mauritius
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 Nov 09, 2008, 09:04:11 PM | #1 |
Helloo Folks,
We thank God for bringing us to the begining of another brand new week and we give Him the
glory in ALL things..
This is Stallion,veteran forex trader and mentor. I would be reviewing strategic tips on how the major currency pairs can be milked. Though I specialize in gbpusd, other pairs would also be taken into consideration during our analysis.
It has been theorized that your state of mind will dictate your trading methods. Experts in the field of trading psychology have pinpointed three main states of mind and how each has a direct effect on a trader's profitability.
These three mind states are "having", "doing" and "being". Psychologists have noted that those new to trading start with a "having" state of mind. As they gain more experience, they move on to a "doing" state of mind. The pinnacle of profitability occurs when a trader moves into the last and final "being" frame of mind.
The "Having" Mind Set
A novice trader may focus primarily on profits. In this "having" state of mind, they are out of sync with the markets. They are blinded by their obsession to obtain the all mighty dollar and what it can afford them. Trading is not viewed as a job that must be mastered, but as a vehicle to escape from a world of mediocrity.
Many traders are in the business to make money, as well as they should be. However, if they are blinded by greed, they tend to take uncalculated risks. Looking at the potential payoff without carefully calculating market trends and other factors is a recipe for disaster.
It is impossible to graduate to a high performance level when you concentrate on "having" instead of how the game is won. If you trade in a "having" frame of mind, you may become frustrated when profits are not immediately forthcoming. With frustration comes a lack of focus. Without the ability to focus, you cannot gain knowledge from your experience on the trading field.
Other negative consequences of this mindset are feelings of frustration and anger. Frustration stemming from a lack of expected profits and anger directed at oneself or the market in general. These adverse emotions will only cause further decline in profitability. Without witnessing gains from one's efforts, an individual may not give their best and may be tempted to "throw in the towel".
The "Doing" State of Mind
If an individual continues on to trade another day, they will eventually move from a "having" to a "doing" state of mind. Learning that there is more to trading than the amassing of money, a trader will turn their focus on learning new methods of trading and what does and doesn't work.
This state of mind is still primarily centered on how to turn a profit. Although a "doing" mind state is essential to becoming a seasoned adept trader, the main focus is still short of the mark. It is crucial to know what works and what doesn't. However, a skilled trader will tell you there is more to the business then choosing one method and using it arbitrarily to make trades across the board.
Becoming a trader of means requires not only a winning attitude, but also a fine honing of trading skills. To develop these skills, you must make trades using various methods under a wide spectrum of market conditions. Only then can you develop the needed intuition to master the art of trading.
Pinnacle of Profitability: The "Being" State of Mind
A successful trader almost instinctively knows how to make a trade using the best method available for the current market trend and/or condition. This ability does not occur overnight. It is only accomplished through perseverance, knowledge of various trading methods and learning which one works given a particular market condition.
No trade is ever a "sure thing". However, a profitable synchronicity almost naturally occurs when you are faced with a potential trade, have a feel for the current market trends and conditions, and utilize the method best suited for a potential payoff. This "being" state of mind ultimately lends itself to long-term success in the high stakes of trading.
[20:06:58 07/11/08] Stalion : We put a SELL STOP on GBPUSD@ 1.5660...1st target @
1.5600...sl@ 1.5715
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 13, 2008, 09:24:46 PM | #2 |
[QUOTE=artlowell@upwadaccess.com;182064]Thanx for the response, Forexgreenland. Looks like
I'm in the wrong forum.
I googled "uptick rule" and every search result was in a language that I don't understand.
They don't allow short-selling with IRA money. They also won't allow day-trading. Ah,
according to Investopedia, the uptick rule was eliminated June 6, 2007.
There are lots of equities just lying on the floor at bargain prices, just bubbling
sideways. Good for some profits sometime in the future, but not doing anything right now. It
looks like Forex is always active. (I know nothing about this market. Looks tricky).
I liked your zen-oriented description of the trader's frame-of-mind in your opening post in
this thread. I'm still in the first stage with some forays into the second. It is an
interesting journey.
Hi art,
I feel your pain...the languages coming out from those search engines on uptick rule were
kind of like finance hieroglyphics...since it had been eliminated since 2007, no worries..
yes, forex is always active with lots of volatility, but it only looks tricky when you are
not that familiar with the market.. Warren Buffet was right when he was quoted as saying
''Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing''..but you can still learn the ropes if you
are willing and committed..
Well, you dont really have to be a Zen Master, or a Yogi master, or Shaolin Master, or even
a Shambala Master, before getting ''in the flow''.. Just let yourself go..
''A journey of a Thousand Miles Begins With A Single Step..
[QUOTE=barbs;208943]As an American who has most of their savings in sterling, I've got one
word to sum up what I feel right now.
F*%K!!
Me too, barbs...I feel ya...
Ohh, by the way, lemme wish you Americans a Happy Thanksgiving Day in advance..Did I hear
someone say Turkey Day?
[QUOTE=Forexgreenland;208839][10:09:20] Stalion : so we put a buy stop on gu at 1.4970...1st
target at 1 5025..2nd target at 1.5080...sl 50 pips away...
[QUOTE=y_2008;209042]What is happening? usd was sold accross the board (except agains yen)
by more than 200 pips in one hour or so. Can any body explain?
No probs, mon ami..The pound was battered after the Bank of England said on Wednesday the British economy would shrink sharply next year, bolstering expectations that further sharp cuts in interest rates were in the pipeline.Lower interests rates means lower value of the currency due to
investors selling the low yield currency to buy higher yielding currencies.. That would
bring about a downward sell pressure on the gbpusd.
[QUOTE=markdaniel213;209028]I need to purchase 1000 GBP to pay a debt in the UK, and have
been trying to keep an eye on the exchange rate (as I'll have to buy the 1000 GBP with USDs
- I'm a US citizen and am paid in USDs
Can you experts offer me suggestions around when I should buy the GBPs? I must have them by
end-of-month December 2008, but am not sure how to get a good idea (forecasting and such) as
to when between now and 31st Dec 2008 would be the best time to exchange USDs for GBPs.
Any help that you can offer if VERY much appreciated!
Thanks!
Mark
Hi markdaniel,any relations with mark anthony??LOL..
You've just boiled it down to a simple question..What is meaning of forex?
It is the buying and selling of international currencies..I think you might need a cup of
coffee for this..
For example, 1 GBPUSD is equivalent to 1.4700 dollars..1000 GBP is equivalent to 1470
dollars USD..that is, at the international rate of 1.4700...You are using 1470 dollars to
buy 1000 pounds sterling..
But wait...The current fundamentals suggest Britain is in the throes of recession, while the
BOE is about to further slash interest rates in the nearest future..Low interest rates from
bad economic recessionary data spewing forth from the UK is likely to pull the T-strings of
cable down south..wow..
Technical analysis wise, price have fallen way beyond the 60% BUY WINDOW on the monthly
charts,with 4 long range bearish candles going ballistic underground.. Both MACD divergences
foretells bearish movement of price on the GBPUSD..A Category Four Trendline has already
taken place..
so come December, price getting to our projected target point of 1.3090, , you BUY 1000GBP
for $1,309 dollars..since the GBP would have likely lost more value in the weeks to come..Does that mean we might be seeing a dollar rally before the end of the year 2008? Of course..just got ma fingers crossed..
I hope you now understand..
Remember, nothing is cast in stone on forex...and in life...Also do your own research before
taking any recommendations...Feel free to discuss it here..
sorry guys, that I forgot to alert you due to internet blackout in my zone..more than 300
pips,$300 minilot,$3000 standard lot was made on the sell stop of gbpusd wednesday
afternoon.., which offsetted our previous double buy stop loss of 50 pips each..making back
more than 3 times our previous loss...Well,what can I say..
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 18, 2008, 09:13:37 AM | #4 |
Quote from Smurfie:
Hey Forexgreenland
All trends from the monthly to the 5m timeframe are down. Why do you see an up-gap coming?
In other words, on what do you base your decision?
Cheers,
Smurf
Hi Smurf, the up gap is not really the issue here..Price pleased us with some lyrical
teasers.
We jus chilling.. when we popped the cable glass ceiling..like an epiphany..me and
traderji..
I based my decision due to the ''market tells''..shown on those charts..mon ami..Like I said
earlier, price was at its BUY WINDOW...MACD showing bullish divergence,123 pattern,etc..As
you go along, you'll see why I based my decision on a long call, instead of a short..
[QUOTE=jeff15]In the name of the lord most merciful,
Nice thread forexgreenland. Week begins with the pound 13 percent drop against the dollar
and 8 percentagainst the euro . British banks are shrinking foreign borrowings .A weaker
currency is being recommended.
Maybe, jeff15...maybe..
[QUOTE=betard 75367]Bearish gap, filled and bounced off your entry point (resistance area).
Looked like a good place to short rather than long but i was sleeping. If there had been a
bullish gap then that looked like a good long trade though (bounce off support). Look
forward to hearing more.
Yes, betard, I like that word ..''bounced off entry point''..like bouncy balls..At that
particular time, it looked good to short..and we got stopped out twice..
In retrospect, that might not really look like a good place to short, except for the
SCALPERS..Like Ninjas,they move in stealth, with each breath..never make their presence
felt..Price on the GBPUSD opened this Monday morning @ 1.4671..made a low of 1.4656..just 15
pips..removing 5 to 6 pip spread reduces it further..Though there was not a bullish gap in
the early hours of this morning, but a bearish gap on the open, it was just the precursor of
good times in the bullish sides..
[QUOTE=Anonymous;86746]Wow nice call today! I must be honest after been stop out twice the
third time I was not very condident with the trade and took+ 20 pips, if I had wait I should
grabe +200pips.... thx Stalion
It was like 382 pips,mon ami...close to $400 minilot..$4000 standard lot on monday..But we
got stopped out twice at 65 pips each...making a total loss of 130 pips..Subtract that from
382 pips, we get net profit of 252 pips(excluding pip spread /or charges.)..But remember, we
lost twice before we can arrive at our net profit..Such is life...If Thomas Edison can fail
a thousand times before dicovering the icandescent lamp, why are we traders soo skeptical to
losses.. Every single trade does not have to be a masterpiece..
[QUOTE=delvia_saputri;905683]forexgreenland, I will be here with you to check the
daily analysis and strategic tips of forex.. i hope you post such this info continuously ...
I will learn more and more..
Thanks forexgreenland
No probs, delv..We all learn and earn more and more...
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 20, 2008, 01:15:35 PM | #5 |
[QUOTE=jeffsmith;384871]Looking at GBP/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.5.
Pivot: 1.5
Preferred: Short positions below 1.5 with targets @ 1.4815 & 1.467 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5 look for further upside with 1.51 & 1.513 as targets.
Comment: the RSI has banged against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.
It is being said the pound's decline will assist GB's economy so as long as it doesn't turn
into a ``run'' on the currency.Investors are selling the pound on concern about the size of
GB's recession.
Nice one, jeffsmith, keep it coming..
[QUOTE=stalla;212577]Nice analysis !!!
I think the pound keeps getting pounded for further losses after the negative view trotted
out by King and company midweek and by the backdrop of the country's current account deficit
and huge fiscal challenges. These are the same types of problems faced by the typical
emerging market country in a global crisis and some are even starting to talk up the idea of
a currency crisis for the UK. The negative momentum that GBP has worked up at this point is
getting worrisome and may demand an official response very soon if GBPUSD moves to 1.4000
and EURGBP to 0.9000. We've been taken aback at the vehemence of the moves - the GBP crosses
are dangerous territory.
Regards
Yes,stalla, you might be quite right on that one, you know..especially with the GBP crosses
like GBPCHF and GBPJPY, aka the beast..so prudent money management during trading is very
important..
[11:11:55 19/11/08] Stalion: hi everyone
[11:12:17 19/11/08] Maximus : Hey Stalion good to hear from you..
[11:14:08 19/11/08] djcarlos : Hi
[11:16:02 19/11/08] Stalion : cool...
[11:21:42 19/11/08] Stalion : also a buy stop on gu at 1.5005..1st target at 1.5025..2nd
target at 1.5045...40 pip sl away
[11:25:43 19/11/08] djcarlos : so, the buy entry was hit???
[11:26:33 19/11/08] Stalion : yes, dj...
[11:26:46 19/11/08] Stalion : we are on the ride
[11:44:07 19/11/08] klho83 : All targets hit
[11:45:24 19/11/08] djcarlos : yes
[11:50:35 19/11/08] masif1 : wow - quick 40pips!
[11:50:35 19/11/08] Maximus : do we live the sell stop there?
[11:50:47 19/11/08] masif1 : and still going up!
[11:53:16 19/11/08] Maximus : guys do myou keep your sell entry activated or not?
[11:56:07 19/11/08] djcarlos : I saw in dailyfx.com that GU will going to make pivot in
1.5050
[11:56:34 19/11/08] Stalion : no...delete the sell stop entry for now, since market dynamics
have changed
[11:56:46 19/11/08] djcarlos : ok
[11:57:00 19/11/08] Maximus : thx...
[11:57:03 19/11/08] Stalion : hope you got ur trailing stop on
[11:58:00 19/11/08] Stalion : what kind of pivot,dj? what do you mean about pivot at 1.5050
[11:58:03 19/11/08] Maximus : exit 1.5045 because only trading 0.10 lots..
[11:58:35 19/11/08] djcarlos : I can send to you the chart by mail
[11:59:07 19/11/08] klho83 : Is the sell stop still valid?
[11:59:48 19/11/08] masif1 : i have left the sell in place
[11:59:54 19/11/08] Stalion : it doesnt matter, max..you could close half of the 0.1 lot
...as in, 0.05..the allow d other half to ride with a trailing stop..
[20:33:40] Stalion : hi folks, its a cool evening here in the city of Lagos, so we put a buy
stop on GBPUSD @ 1.5045..1st target at 1.5070...2nd taRGET AT 1.5095..3rd target at
1.5120...50 pip sl away
And we also put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4970...1st target @ 1.4945..2nd target @ 1.4920..3rd target @ 1.4895..
We call it TRAPPING THE DRAGON TECHNIqueza
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 21, 2008, 05:10:30 AM | #6 |
[QUOTE=onwukarisa;11051]Hello Mystikal,
How are you doing?Please i will like to ask apart from the 123 top and bottom, is there any other type of chart pattern that can be formed.
Yes, onwuka...there are some good chart patterns around...just google head and shoulder patterns, W top and bottom, wedges,triangles,pennants, etc..You could find something useful that might assist you in your trading activities..If you checked those charts, you would hardly see any indicators...every trading decision is based from the charts and patterns..no mumbo jumbo indicators or lines all over the place,,just straight from the charts..
[QUOTE=KITT862;9522]it seems too complicated/technical for me . really for beginner? for me, I just need easy/simple indicator or EA to decide buy or sell.
Lol,kitty...in reality..it is quite simple and easy in forecasting..Dont stop it if you think you gonna make a profit..
Many of the most simplest things in life are the most profound..like hydrogen,with the atomic number of 1.
We need 2 atoms of oxygen with an atom of hydrogen, to form 1 molecue of water(H20)..Very simple but many people are not AWARE..''For the Bible says;My people Perish Due To Lack Of Knowledge/Vision''..
Until you are AWARE that YOU are the INDICATOR..YOU are the Expert Advisor...YOU are the ROBOT...YOU are the HOLY GRAIL'',,you would always see yourself as a beginner in the markets..
Until you throw off the clutches of EA's, robots,and diverse indicators, and start taking trading decisions straight from the charts,you would always tend to see yourself handicapped from reaching your goals of making profits through trading..
YOU TAKE THE DECISION...YOU TAKE THE RESPONSIBILITIES..NOT A ROBOT..FOR YOU ARE THE R-O-B-O-T!
[QUOTE=logoodung;213517]I went short @ 1.4944 yesterday at about 7am with limit set at 1.49 and stop loss at 1.50. Up to 11am the range fluctuated between 1.4960 to 1.4995 even after the BoE minutes. Did I miss something? After the CBI report obviously I was out the trade and seeing the trend of GBP extend to 1.51+. Why didn't this go my way?
Sorry,logoodung, you were right in the middle of the 3 low of the 1-2-3 pattern,which usually foretells a bullish bias..Problem was, you thought short, instead of long..Thats what you missed, mon ami..ohh, by the way, there was also a bullish hammer candlestick just where you went short, which formed as support to price..so where you would've gone right, as in the solution, was by putting a sell stop below the low of 1, of the 123 chart pattern,which if triggered, would confirm your bearish bias in pric e movement..
[QUOTE=mystikal;11120]
[20:33:40] Stalion : hi folks, its a cool evening here in the city of Lagos,
And we also put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4970...1st target @ 1.4945..2nd target @
1.4920..3rd target @ 1.4895..
We call it TRAPPING THE DRAGON TECHNIqueza
[20:45:50 19/11/08] Maximus : ok I got it, thx Stalion.....
[20:50:33 19/11/08] djcarlos : thanks Stal
[09:24:57 20/11/08] klho83 : I missed that:(
[10:31:43 20/11/08] klho83 : Hi Max.
[10:58:56 20/11/08] masif1 : guys stalion did NOT post the following alert
[10:59:05 20/11/08] masif1 : And we also put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4970...1st target @ 1.4945..2nd target @
[11:00:48 20/11/08] masif1 : 1.4920..3rd target @ 1.4895..
[11:00:55 20/11/08] masif1 : this was on the forum
[11:01:13 20/11/08] masif1 : posted last night
[11:01:23 20/11/08] masif1 : the buy call we would have got stopped out on
[11:01:37 20/11/08] masif1 : however the sell call we would have made profit Wink
[11:06:42 20/11/08] masif1 : or was that the original sell alert stalion sent yesterday morning?
[11:06:59 20/11/08] masif1 : i know i should not have cancelled it ;(
so for Friday,we put a buy stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4865...1st target @ 1.4900...2nd target @ 1.4950...3rd target @ 1.5050
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 23, 2008, 08:12:01 AM | #7 |
[QUOTE=onwukarisa;11172]hello stallion,
please i have some questions for you:
1) Please how do you know which time frame to do your analysis. i just noticed that at ties,
you do your analysis on 5 minutes chart, 15 minutes chart or 4 hours chart. Please what
factors
do you actually put into considerations when choosing this time frame?
2)i have also noticed that the way you choose your pattern formations vary(whether 1-2-3 top
or
bottom). in some cases,you space out the distance b/w the points 1,2,and 3. And in some
cases,
the distance b/w the points are very close? Please why is this so?
3) You sometime made mention of a hammer to me. Please if i see a bearish or bullish hammer,
what does that mean or what do i expect to see?
4) "Since a doji session represents a market at a juncture of indecision, it can often be
an early
warning that a preceeding rally(rise) could be losing steam.."
My question here is this: can a doji also tell you that a preceding fall or drop is also
losing steam?
Trust onwuka to ask some of those deep questions...
We use what traders popularly call the TOP DOWN APPROACH..starting from the higher
timeframes(monthly, weekly, daily and four hourly), to the lower timeframes(hourly,
15min,and 5 minutes..)..As we are mainly on intraday trading,we use lower timeframes to
pinpoint entries and exits...higher timeframes are mainly used by position and swing
traders..also good for knowing the overall trend..
2..The spacing of the 1-2-3 pattern is quite irrelevant due to the fact that market dynamics
change as time progresses..trading is a function of time and space..HOW long can price
travel in a session(s)..What you are looking for is the OVERALL pattern, not the difference
in sums between the parts of the whole..
3..A bullish hammer is oulined like a hammer...where the shadow or tail is twice the length
of the real body of the candlestick..whether dark or white..it means price is pausing in
order to reverse or continue its walk..
And yes, a doji can also foretell a preceeding fall losing steam..
[quote='Reealjrd' pid='6695' dateline='1227339374']
Market has recovered some shat. But we cannot say it a recovery because some market news say
that the market might once again show some dip. So be cautious when the market goes up.
Yes, we surely will,Reeal...
[QUOTE=arranp;209765]Hello,
How long to stay short of sterling? how long until sterling recovers?
I have a USD fund with a STG equivalent, at some point I should switch from USD into STG, I
am wondering if now is to soon.
Thanks in advance for advice.
Regards
Arran.
'The Reaction Swing is the centre of the cycle, where you can look back and then based on
this information, determine where the cycle will go in the future.Since the Reaction Swing
is where the Action ends and the Reaction begins, it marks the centre of a repititive cycle
in which the past can project the future..
In the monthly chart below, the price movement between B and C is the Reaction Swing.
A Reaction Swing begins and ends with the lowest and highest closing prices..All you need to
know are the dates of the highest closing price and the lowest closing price of the Reaction
Swing in order to move on to the next step- PROJECTING FUTURE TURNING POINTS IN THE MARKETS
CALLED REVERSAL DATES, WHERE PRICE AND TIME CONVERGE.
Subtract the low of 1.7047(C), from the high of 1.9554(B) to get a difference of 0.2507
Divide 0.2507 by 2 (half) to get a total of 0.1254
Subtract 0.1254 from the high of 1.9554 and you get a price of 1.8304 ass the centre of the
Reaction Swing.
Place a sell stop at 1.8304.When the market passes through this price, the sell stop is
triggered and you are short GBPUSD at 1.8304.That should be around august this year..
The next step is to determine the maximum possible timespan of the trade..According to TIME
PROJECTION strategies, the Reversal date(high probability turning point of its trend) is
scheduled as from 4 to 8 months from now..Those on March futures could take mental note.
Whichever comes first...1.3090 target for our price projection or 4 to 8 months in our time
projection..whichever one comes first
[QUOTE=kongsar168;135846]is everyone here ever use indicator cat50fx ???
Not sure,kong..
Quote from trackstar:
what "method" are you using for these conditions?
Hi trackstar,It is much of a ''method'', than it is a strategy...The CHART PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND PRICE PROJECTION STRATEGY simply tells us where price is going and how far
it might get there, to a considerable extent..
technamental wrote:
No.. Your posts here are not collaborative. They are self promoting. I don't think
you have any intent of interacting with this forum's users on the other threads
here...
You are quite mistaken, my good fellow..maybe there's a slight misunderstanding here...I
intract by answering comments and questions addressed in this thread..Just by reading your
posts along with others, here, shows inclusion..I'm sorry if it seems self promoting to you,
but I believe readers have a lot to gain when going through this thread,whether
participating or non participating..very educative and reveals how real life practical
trading works..no spouting of theories that brings no profits to members..Why cover the
light under a basket in darkness? The purpose and nature of light is to shine!
This is like a JOURNEY...A JOURNEY INTO THE HEART OF TRADING...A MOVEMENT...A MOVEMENT INTO
THE FRONTIERS OF OPPORTUNITIES! And if along the way, showing that trading can be a
winner's game..or something good can come out of my country Nigeria, despite all the media
negativity...if considered as self promoting..then so be it...Cant win'em all, can we?
[QUOTE=bertmaple;214362]okay- a few things ive learned through the years of fxing -
go with the trend & dont try and guess when the trend is over
BUT.......
did anyone else see the USD turnaround signs? Not really a strong one with GBP - but a
perfect trendline touch on EUR, almost a double top reaction spike on CHF.
All pairs showed serious rection spikes today - without surpassing former lows/highs
Kind of like slamming the brakes on your car.
Wonder if Mon Asian market will dump lots of cash in - or wait because of light US trade
week?
Will the slow trade week basically reset all the indicators and make this one giant
bull/bear trap?
Set yr stops close ~
Thoughts?
:confused:
Quite elementary, my dear Watson..I mean, Bert..The Doggy Style move on the GBPUSD have the
potential of yielding approximately 135 pps when we put a sell stop @ 1.4922..1st target @
1.4881..2nd target @ 1.4840..3rd target @ 1.4787...if you fear a trap, you can also put a
buy stop on the same entry @ 1.4922..1st target @ 1.4945..2nd target @ 1.4970..3rd target @
1.4995..on the bullish side..USDCHF might also open on the bullish side @ 1.2225..1st target
@ 1.2245..2nd target @ 1.2262
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
Mauritius
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Nov 30, 2008, 05:31:51 PM | #9 |
Hi Stal,
Wanted to clarify a point out of the explaination that you gave a couple of days back about
the Reaction Swing and the Projected Reversal Date.
1.When you said about the centre of the cycle, wont we calculate a 60% buy window and be
long on the trade after the Reaction Swing ends and the current Bull run restarts.
2.For applying Mr.Crane's Reversal date projection technique of reverse and forward counts,
what is the most reliable time frame to do so. I mean I tried doing it in smaller time
frames but could not be very successful.
Thnks..your big fan..
Helloo Learning pips,
You know what your questions does to me? it challenges me...really, it does..like digging
down the well of yourself..believe me guys, these questions are NOT easy, though
simple..neither is understanding market behaviour or ''tells'' for consistent
profitability..
So we go back to our monthly charts on the GBPUSD..remember last time, we talked about a
reversal date of 4 to 8 months from now, for the cable..in which , price would have reached
a high probability turning point from its downtrend to (A) an uptrend reversal or (B), a
sideways consolidation or range in which the market is not ready to reverse but would
continue trading in the same direction as the current trend.So price on cable has a maximum of 9 months to show a reversal, according to the Reversal Date technique.
We shouldnt mix the concept of the Reaction Swing and Projected Reversal Date with the 60%
buy/sell windows. The R.S is mainly used for TIME PROJECTIONS while the 60% buy/sell windows
are more useful in the realm of PRICE PROJECTIONS.Now look at BC, the Reaction Swing where
we got the centre of the circle in which the past can project the future..though price would
have triggered our centre of the Reaction Swing @ 1.8300..it made a turnaround at the 60%
window..where the red arrow was.. Except you got very deep pockets to withstand a $1300 pip
downward move with leverage,you would've been stopped out..It was at the 2nd try, where the
blue arrow was, that price cleanly triggered the buy stop at the centre of the Reaction
Swing, and rocketed up..
Another difference is the R.S/R.D are mainly used in PRICE RETRACEMENTS, while the BUY/SELL
WINDOWS, are mainly used PRICE TRENDS..Always understand the difference, like understanding
your reality..''where Am I At In The Present Moment Of Now?'' Where Am I In The Greater
Scheme Of The Universe?Am I in a full trend or a retracement/correction?
2 Actually, you can apply those TIME PROJECTION TECHNIQUES on any timeframe, whether 5min,
15min, hourly, or weekly,etc.. The major challenge is counting those bars or candlesticks,
for the lower the timeframes, the more Reaction Swings inherent in them, and the more you do
your counts.. Since John Crane is from the futures/commodities world, most of his strategies
are different, yet similar to those in the forex world. His brilliant book, ADVANCED SWING
TRADING'', is very helpful for swing and position traders..
[QUOTE=Mageroi;216443]My studies have proven to me that flexible and liberal interpretation
of EWA coupled with precise Fibonacci proportions & extensions on Price much more accurate
and practicable than all the Time studies of Gann, Delta, MM etc...
From practice & observation of others (including the newsletters from Copan) Delta or MM are
pretty much based on loose, flexible timings.The theoretical assertiveness of Copan in his
tapes is impressive but his newsletters are nourished with incertitudes....
I have yet to find a Timing study more precise than Price to trade with despite all the hype
about Time. Time cycles dissapears at times......
Just my experience and choice I guess.
Hmmm, Mageroi, you might be quite right there..though they still have their uses..Is Time
Projection a core strategy of Buffetology?
[QUOTE=MB219TR;209978]Dear Madam and Dear Sir,
My name is Mahir I am a investor in Turkey, I would to ask you a question if you permit.
According to the exchange rates, the £ exchange rate to the $ was 1,99 at the common years,
now it decreases to 1,49.
According to the exchange rates, the £ exchange rate to the € was 1,55 at the common years,
now it decreases to 1,17.
As we have in our owner equity, our capital is almost all in British Pounds. According to
the long-term finance management we have a loss of about 900.000 Dollar’s because of the
exchange course.
My question is what do you advice me to do. Should I change to Euro or will the Pound be
stable and will gain its unique power again.
I hope you are not suprised about this mail because there to many speculations and I really
do not now how to act thats why I need help for an advice from you.
I thank you in forward and hope for your reply.
Yours Sincerly,
MAHIR - MB219TR@YAHOO.COM
Well, Mahir,
just dont overlook GOLD as an alternative asset class, that traders run to during periods of
market uncertainity.
[QUOTE=danew13;215670]trying to max my dollar exchange to gbp...i can wait...is it worth it?
some predict gbp will tank at 1.40 dol. opinion?
Even lower, danew...Price on the cable have up to 9 months to prove it.
NOW,SUNDAY,our previous order is still on,.we put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.5300..1st target
@ 1.5260...2nd target @ 1.5175..3rd target @ 1.5090..sl @ 50 pips away from entry..
[10:32:33 26/11/08] Stalion : we also put a buy stop on gu @ 1.5540...1st target @
1.5580..2nd target @ 1.5615
[10:33:04 26/11/08] Stalion : sl @ 40 pips away..
If you care to observe, both buy and sell stops are at the extreme end of the Thanksgiving
week range..so we call this THE MONTHOBAMA TECHNIQUE
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